SaskPower rates could double in the next 25 years should the province continue its current coal-centered transition to nuclear power, according to third-party modelling commission by the Saskatchewan NDP.

The NDP opposition tasked consultant Energy Super Modelers and International Analysts (EMSIA) to examine SaskPower data and generate potential rate scenarios into 2050.

EMSIA is a Canadian-based consulting firm which has worked with various levels of governments.

According to its report, rates may increase up to 100 per cent under current policies.

“This was not a plan that was costed,” NDP MLA Aleana Young claimed. “Saskatchewan needs an affordable, a flexible and a reliable plan for power generation going forward. That’s certainly not what we see from the government and that’s certainly not what we’re hearing from people around the province.”

SaskPower has stated it remains on track to begin small modular reactor (SMR) construction for power generation in 2029 with the hope to implement nuclear power into the grid beginning in 2034.

In the meantime, the province is investing $902 million into its coal-fired plants to assist in the transition, running them past 2030.

“By choosing to extend the life of our existing assets, SaskPower has reduced projected capital expenditures by $21 billion through 2050,” Minister of Crown Investments Jeremy Harrison said in a statement Friday.

EMSIA’s findings examined consumer-centric energy rates, the impact of energy demand and supply, as well as the evolution of rates and charges.

It explored the future of Saskatchewan’s electrical system to generate various scenarios, including current, mix and optimal cost assumptions.

Areas of interest included:

• Potential for renewables
• SMR implementation
• Effects on ratepayers
• Self-reliance of the grid
• Demand levels and supply mix constraints

“[Government of Saskatchewan] scenarios present higher rates on average due to added cost of coal refurbishment,” EMSIA’s report said. “Highest rates are observed under high demand and no import scenarios. Lower rates typically arise from imports and lower generation.”

“Emissions reduction measures drive significant clean energy buildout. Policy may push higher rates in the short-medium term,” it added.

The report also found that using coal to bridge to nuclear attributed to high rates under the current policy.

“Coal refurbishment costs has a key impact on rates,” EMSIA said. “Emissions reduction measures may encourage more substantial shift in the short-medium term.”

“Running refurbished coal longer leads to higher emissions. More substantial shift to clean energy under policy pressure and net-zero commitments can present higher rates,” the report added.

The Government claims the report evaluated the provincial grid under conditions which do not exist in Saskatchewan.

“There is no carbon tax or clean electricity standard ‘policy’ here,” Harrison’s statement said. “The provincial Energy Security Strategy strengthens and expands Saskatchewan’s electricity system through a diversified, all of the above investment approach. This includes evaluating the cost and value of extending legacy assets versus the cost of new build options.”

“Ultimately, we chose a path that prioritizes certainty and security of supply,” the statement added.

NDP’s plan

The NDP says it is formulating its own grid strategy based on EMSIA’s findings.

However, those details were kept tightly lipped by the party while speaking to reporters.

When asked if she believes there is a current power source in Saskatchewan which has the capacity to support the province’s buildout to nuclear, Young said plans were in the works.

“You’ll see proposals from us pretty shortly on this,” she responded. “We’ve been critical for a while; the province should have been doing more in the past.”

However, Young did say a mix-supply model can meet the province’s baseload needs.

“Renewables are going to have a part to play in that,” she said. “We can’t run our economy exclusively on renewables, no one’s suggesting that. We’re going to need baseload from natural gas, we’re going to need nuclear.”

“Of course it’s going to include renewables. Not because it makes us feel good, but because they’re the most affordable way to get power on the grid quickly at a low cost to the taxpayer,” Young added.

The NDP says it plans to release its strategy before the end of the month.